The Next Facebook

Facebook is and will continue to be a massive success for a super scale virtual social network. The main reason for Facebook’s success was its ability to draw the non geek crowd onto a computerized platform.

Facebook’s Strategy 

Facebook - The First Giant
Facebook - The First Giant

Friendster, Hi5 and other networks failed to draw a mainstream audience. At that point, the success of a social network was based on quantity. The more friends you had on the network, the greater the chances of you joining and staying on. Facebook did it with just one masterstroke – Photos.

Whether you are a geek or not, you like photos, you like looking at what others are doing. Be it curiosity or nosiness, it is human nature to want to be informed of what others were doing.

Most people are not extroverts publically. What photo sharing and tagging did was to indirectly cause an individual to expose and publish what he/she has been doing without any shyness. This is what drew the millions to Facebook. ‘I want to see what my friends have been up to.’ And your friends were happily posting photos and tagging people in them. What people saw as an awesome photo-sharing site turned into the world’s largest social network.

In came the games and whatever tool that would cause you stay past the photos sharing phase. And now you are hooked. Funds started pouring in. Facebook became the next biggest platform for advertising. Everyone jumped on the bandwagon, and here we are.

This is also the reason why Pinterest without needing much advertising became a sustainable sensation for the past months. Visuals work. All the time.

There Won’t Be Another Giant 

I find it laughable when people talk about the ‘next Facebook’. You won’t get another giant in this sector.

In economics, the model that large social networks operate in works only within a monopolistic structure. Because large networks aim to catch everyone you know to fall in it, having two or three competitors within the same space does not work out.

Facebook, as a market leader, has put in place protective measures. You cannot blame them for being evil with privacy and exporting options. The moment Facebook allows you to export your data or easily hide yourself; the entire network loses its value. You are the product and they need you proudly displayed on their shelves whether you like it or not.

As much as I like Google+’s model, it is attempting to do too many things at once. It’s a Google thing. They dabble in everything and master very little of what they do. After all these years, they have only 2 key strengths. Search and email. All run by advertising. Search and Email were products they had for more than 10 years.

Google+ Late and Confused
Google+ Late and Confused

Google+ attempted to be both Twitter and Facebook. While it is possible to have a second Twitter, the market for large social networks have only space for one giant and Facebook got here first. Google+ needs Facebook to collapse in order for it to take over. Who knows the Zuckerberg might screw it up one day.

Actual Usage 

While many have flocked to Facebook, the rush to add everyone has been long past. Each of us easily has 300-5000 friends on our Facebook profiles. These friends encompass everyone you know from your childhood all the way to present friends, acquaintances and that one classmate that you said ‘hi’ to once and never talked to again. Facebook is now an address book. A book of names and faces of people that you know exist but not necessarily are close to.

After the initial rush, many users including myself found the platform to be of high value but yet something that we could not completely relate to. I personally thought that Facebook was a great way to keep in contact with friends I would have otherwise not been able to. I found so many Primary school friends and it was great to speak with them again. But yet, so much has changed. The Dave of 1994 is very different from the one that is now typing away. Core characteristics remain but the peripheral portions of my personality have changed. As this blog would suggest, I am no longer the idealist I was. In fact, the very move of taking on economics is a signal of my change in ideologies. I did not take Economics because it was the best money making option available to me. I took it because I have already applied so many of its principles without even knowing the subject in the first place. Primary school friends would find this hard to believe.

So, what is Facebook now? It is an excellent address book. It is the basic level of networking available and a very good one to squarely due to its size.

Pseudo Networks 

It is not surprising that Instagram took off because it incorporated the same strategy Facebook used. However, it operated under a smaller less public network which appealed to those who did not like a giant firm having access to all they have. This is also why Facebook bought them. Instagram was a threat. It held a database of users who like the same model as Facebook but did not like being in the open.

What’s Next 

People will find less meaning in such a massive social network with time. Already some are deleting their ‘friends’ apologizing in advance that they needed to tighten their networks. I believe most will not want to do so because of the guilt and the fear they may never ever be able to contact them again. This will signal an era of smaller concise networks.

Path - Value of Smaller Networks
Path - The Value of Smaller Networks

Path has already taken life of its own on mobile platforms. Missing a web interface, path is building up which ties in nicely with its strategy of keeping networks small.

Yours truly is on Path and my network is kept really tight. Facebook remains as a measure of people whom I know. Not all are friends, some are acquaintances, some are those I’ve only met online but extensively enough to be real life friends. But I won’t want to share everything I have with everybody that I know. I am sure they do not want to see all the junk I post as well since they are not very close to me. All these I keep on Path.

The company who is able to build as well integrated a platform as Path yet with simple web access will be the next big thing.

It’s A Human Thing 

At the end of the day, social networks and virtual platforms must mirror the way humans are. We want to know many people, but only want to share with a special few. There is space for a second tier of networks. The good news for consumers is that this second tier will not require a monopolistic network to gain success.

Expect small social networking platforms to appear. When the first finds success, a mass will appear. There will soon be many ways to keep in close contact with those you really love and care about.