Windows Phone will Lead Market in 5 Years

Most articles written on the Internet on the mobile scene are loaded. I personally hate fan boys because they have clouded views that cause poor judgements. Every platform has its own fan boys. Let me start off by saying I have been an iOS user for nearly 2 years and currently am an Android user, owner of the HTC One X just purchased 2 days ago.

Personal 

I bought my iPhone 4 when I believed Android would outstrip iOS. Now, I bought my HTC One X believing that Windows Phone is the future. I took a piece of advice that I should not buy what I think will be great in the future but I should buy what I think is great now. And that explains my purchases. I am not a rich person, every cent counts and I have been free to jump between camps whichever is matured and ready to go. So take this post as a clear minded non biased analysis of the current mobile phone market and its future.

What Made Each Platform Successful 

iOS 

iOS
iOS

A first mover advantage is undeniably important in this industry. You set the standards, you get the developers, you get almost everything done your way. Android and Windows Phone users must admit that the apps they have are similar or made in the same tune as iOS apps.

Apple has always been a first mover to be frank. They were first to produce a good GUI, first to commercialize the mouse (from Xerox) and first to enter the PC industry. Unfortunately for Apple, they never cut the same deals as Microsoft did with IBM. Microsoft was consistently better at business partnerships that created a larger market share which spells more users and developers, you can understand why nearly everyone runs Windows on their machines. Even Mac users bootcamp Windows as well. So Apple has learned from that and made their first mover advantage count this time.

Apple was not the first to create a smartphone but the first to make a smartphone usable for the masses. I owned Palm devices at least 8 years before the iPhone was launched. There were a multitude of Palm OS and Windows Mobile OS devices around. But those were for geeks, the mainstream audience could not understand the need or had the ability to operate it.

Apple captured commercially driven developers. The app store was a money making opportunity few would resist. Instagram’s success story came from a guy who hardly knew how to program but did his best for cash.

Android 

Android
Android

Android was a fast second mover. It differentated itself from Apple early on. Opening itself to many providers was a smart move. These 3rd party manufacturers were poor at software. Only Nokia and RIM at that point could create both good hardware and software. This is why Motorola, HTC, LG and later Samsung (abandoning its Bada OS) jumped on board. It like the semi conductor industry of the 1980s re-written. U.S. companies (Google) taking the lead in design (software) and Asian firms partnering them in manufacturing hardware. This was the main reason I expected Android to outstrip iOS within a few years. It already has.

Android was not just open to different manufacturers, it is open to developers as well. The amount of flexibility Google gave on its Operating System was excellent. Google made Android open source not because they were good Samaritans. They did so as a response to Apple’s market leadership. Going open source means you indirectly control how developers approach an operating system. Because your system was free, developers were most likely flock to it and then develop it in a manner you can gently nudge them in the direction you want them to take. The amount of Custom ROMs (you can read that as customized operating systems) in the market for Android is mind boggling. My own phone has amazingly well developed custom ROMs that I may try in the near future.

A vibrant developer community is firmly in the Android sector. These developers are what are called true developers. They know their stuff and even though they are not getting the same cash as iOS developers, these guys usually end up writing better programs that can do more efficiently.

Windows Phone 

It is not a success yet.

Potentials

When looking at future development you have to look past current strengths and weaknesses and look at the core competencies of each company and their track records

Operating System 

Apple has not made any major changes to its operating system for over 5 years. iOS5 is almost identical to iOS1. The recognizable changes are modifications to play catch up to Android. Its most major changes are the use of folders and a better notification management system. Besides that nothing much has changed.

Google has been innovative in tidying up its system. ICS is a lot more improved than Android v1.0. While iOS has focused on refinement whilst staying in its comfort zone, Google has demonstrated flexibility and dare in chopping features that are bad and making those that are poor better.

Microsoft has pulled out an operating system that hinges on a MetroUI interface. This UI is nothing close to what Android and iOS have. A UI for phones is basically a launcher. iOS has a screen of icons. Google has a ‘desktop’ with icons and widgets and a ‘start menu’ with everything inside. MetroUI is a screen of mini widgets. The point of this UI is being able to give the user access to plenty of information without needing any navigation. It is here that I see great potential for MetroUI as Apple and Google is doing only what has been done for the past 20 years.

Ecosystem

The number of apps are inconsequential. If you want to look at absolutely numbers, Android is slightly ahead or very close to catching up with iOS depending on which source you get. In terms of growth rates, both iOS and Android are plateuing with Windows Phone depicting a very fast growth rate that neither iOS and Android have been close to. Do these mean anything? Nope. Within a few years you will see generally equal number of apps and also similar growth rates for all 3 platforms. We are in the period of new growth now and the first ones out will be the first ones to stagnate. So all these current figures mean zilch.

Apple has a solid app platform but nothing else. It’s social networking push with Ping failed badly. It’s cloud service is firmly locked into iOS/Mac platforms alienating more than half of its users. It is also not a web services company. I have to say that unless Apple changes its course very soon, you are looking at saturation on its end.

Google has a lot more to offer. It already has a strong app store. It is a giant in web services. In fact, if you view the future as one that resides on the web, Google has a very strong position in its hands. However, it is unable to break into the desktop market with Chrome books poorly executed or pushed (in fact the latest iteration copies Windows/MacOS). Also, its Google Play! experience for the desktop is poor. There is too much reliance on cookies and login data currently. Google remains as a web giant with exceptional cloud capabilities. It has a lot more going for it in the future than iOS.

Microsoft is a giant at diversification. It has a solid desktop operating system that is very firmly entrenched worldwide with a monopolistic market share. It controls productivity applications that has a worldwide audience and more crucially corporate dependence. It also is the only one out of 3 mobile companies who is successful in the gaming industry with XBOX Live. On top of that, Microsoft does have a good stake in Facebook but it has not flexed that yet. However, it has subpar web services. Bing, Hotmail are poor compared to Google Search and Gmail. They are not necessarily trash but they lag very far behind.

Crystal Ball 

Windows 8
Windows 8 - If Microsoft can pull the desktop and mobile together

If you look at software and hardware as a whole, Microsoft has the greatest potential of the three. Google is a close second and Apple is in danger of repeating its Mac history. There are many ‘ifs’ in predication. Obviously, I take rational guesses but you can never predict disruptive changes in this industry. Who knows Apple may attack the TV business? Something that Google is poor at and Microsoft isn’t even there.

Microsoft will pull it off in 5 years if it is able to pool its resources together. If you look at the ecosystem they provide, you get your productivity and entertainment together with a possibly seamless desktop and mobile solution. It is well balanced between Apple’s mostly local delivery and Google’s heavy dependence on connectivity. If Microsoft can integrate Windows 8 and Windows Phone 8 (and 9, 10, etc) well. You are looking at a massive market takeover. This is especially true if current desktop app developers can be bridged into the mobile space. Would you choose to develop for iOS and Android if you could capture both desktop and mobile markets in one operating system?

Google is another possible leader but this is heavily dependent on world connectivity. It went into Android for the sole purpose of putting a mobile front for its web services. It is spending money on laying fibre optic connections in some states in the U.S. for the self same reason. I do not see worldwide connectivity in 5 years. Not at least in Asia. Google may take leadership in the longer run when the world is well connected. It has great potential but the infrastructure is not in place yet and is not likely to be for a while as you are looking at very costly physical infrastructure that require government policies and approval to push through. Google will take the lead the lead the moment this occurs and one is able to go anywhere while remaining connected to a fast and reliable web connection. Currently, we are far from it. LTE is still in its infancy in the U.S. and most countries are very far from even having a consistent 3G connection.

Apple is in danger. I await its iOS 6 and iPhone 5 launches with keen interest. Tim Cook has to expand the platform to extend iOS’s future prospects.

Unlikely Audacious Moves 

It is clear in what is written above that Apple or Microsoft is lacking what Google is strong at. This makes either of them perfect partners for Google. However, Apple is less likely to do so compared to Microsoft. Microsoft is well known for its daring moves in partnering IBM and later Intel. While it has a track record in making such deals, I doubt this will occur. The future is the web and Microsoft will seek to take a stranglehold of it rather than depend Google for that.

Conclusion 

I hope you find this long article unbiased and objective. I have no allegiances to any tech company. I often find it silly that people can swear their lives on Apple or Google or Microsoft. It is a little sad to do so. There’s so much more to personal identity than just the tech you use. As I have shown my ease of switching camps, I am very driven to support good products. Apple was king and now Google has the crown. However, I believe that Microsoft has the market in 5 years baring any shocking changes in this industry.